It’s been a horrendous year for Bitcoin. It started bad, and it’s finishing even worse. The recovery that Bitcoin bulls were hoping would come at some point this year is all but a pipe dream at this point–even within the past month, Bitcoin’s valuation has nearly halved from $6400 to roughly $3565 at the time of writing.
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And yet, some analysts, executives, and traders have refused to drop their bullish predictions for Bitcoin. Squeezing their optimism to the last drop, they hold onto the idea that Bitcoin will not only recover, but it will shatter expectations, pushing past its all-time high of $20,000 and straight “to the moon.”
Who are these relentless bulls, and why are they holding onto these predictions?
Bobby Lee Sees Triple in 2021
At first glance, it seems that Bobby Lee has a somewhat realistic approach to Bitcoin price predictions (at least in the short-term sense.) Lee is a Bitcoin Foundation board member and co-founder of the BTCC cryptocurrency exchange. On December 7th, 2018, Lee tweeted that he believes that Bitcoin will “bottom out” at $2500 in January of 2019.
Lee’s long-term predictions may be a little less realistic. He went onto say that the next rally will begin in late 2020, bringing a height of $333,000 in December 2021, followed by a crash at $41,000 in January of 2023.
If history repeats perfectly, then the current bear market for #Bitcoin would bottom out at $2,500 next month, in Jan 2019.
And then the next rally would start in late 2020, peak out in Dec 2021 at $333,000, and then crash back down to $41,000 in Jan 2023.
Something like that?? https://t.co/M8ljIVnt73— Bobby Lee (@bobbyclee) December 7, 2018
The fact is, though, that we cannot predict the future based on the past alone. Sure, there are some data points that we can track and analyze various types of patterns. But the economy shrinks, grows, and changes every day with unprecedented inputs and losses. We can’t reliably predict the future of Bitcoin because we can’t reliably predict the future of anything.
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